What you will learn
- Show confidence intervals with point estimates
- Check serial dependence
- Document all tested variants
- Explain what the sample cannot establish
Show confidence intervals with point estimates
Show estimates and intervals together with the sample size, unit and method. Avoid excessive decimal precision that suggests more certainty than the observations support. Make transformations and exclusions reproducible.
Check serial dependence
Inspect serial dependence and changes over time before choosing a simple uncertainty formula. Diagnostics do not prove an ideal model, but they can reveal when its assumptions are visibly questionable.
Document all tested variants
Document all tested versions, including abandoned ones. A final report should distinguish exploratory results from a frozen evaluation. Otherwise the reader cannot assess how much the reported result benefited from selection.
Explain what the sample cannot establish
State what the data cannot establish: future stability, unobserved execution quality or causation may remain unresolved. A limitation is part of the result, not an optional disclaimer after the conclusion.
Worked example
A report shows a mean to six decimals from twelve highly variable trades but no interval or search history. Its numerical precision does not imply evidential precision.
Try it yourself
Rewrite the report's minimum results table and include a field that exposes whether the study was exploratory or confirmatory.
Show the worked solution
Include sample definition and count, net estimate, dispersion or interval with method, data period, costs, number of variants and evaluation status. Explain any dependence or instability that limits interpretation.
Apply this to your course project
Write a performance report with confidence intervals and dependence caveats.
Keep the calculation inputs, assumptions and decisions with your work. Practical exercises are self-reviewed; the scored knowledge checks assess the questions shown, not an independent certification of practical competence.