What you will learn
- Identify untestable assumptions
- Separate prediction and explanation
- Report bounded conclusions
- Avoid unsupported policy claims
Identify untestable assumptions
Identify assumptions that cannot be directly tested and explain why they may be plausible or doubtful. A reader should know where the conclusion depends on judgment rather than observed evidence.
Separate prediction and explanation
Separate prediction from explanation. A variable useful for forecasting need not be a manipulable cause, and a causal effect may not yield a profitable forecast once timing and costs are considered.
Report bounded conclusions
Bound conclusions to the studied population, period and intervention. An estimate in one institutional setting does not automatically transfer to every gold market or future policy regime.
Avoid unsupported policy claims
Avoid converting a limited market study into a broad policy claim without the necessary welfare, mechanism and external-validity analysis. State the narrower question actually addressed by the evidence.
Worked example
A well-supported effect in one event setting is presented as proof that every similar announcement will move gold in the same direction. The generalization exceeds the identified sample and intervention.
Try it yourself
Rewrite that conclusion with a bounded claim and a concrete follow-up study for transferability.
Show the worked solution
State the estimated effect for the defined setting under the listed assumptions, then propose a separately specified sample of other events or regimes. Treat transfer as a new question rather than a guaranteed property.
Apply this to your course project
Draw a causal diagram and explain the identification limits of a proposed gold-market study.
Keep the calculation inputs, assumptions and decisions with your work. Practical exercises are self-reviewed; the scored knowledge checks assess the questions shown, not an independent certification of practical competence.